Scenario Building as a Method in IR

Abstract

This article presents an overview of the historical development of scenario
building as a way of productively relating to the future in international
politics against the background of the discussion of the systemic theories’
predictive power deficit. It outlines a methodological framework of the “new
scenario building” in which point forecasts are abandoned in favour of
creative thinking about possible alternative futures with the aim of
challenging intersubjectively shared assumptions in the field of both theory
and practice, broadening the space of thinking about international affairs,
and advancing political wisdom in the process of confronting the future as
it unreels with the imagined future(s). Finally, it puts forward a method of
scenario building anchored in this framework through which scholars in the
field of international relations may improve the practical relevance of their
historical and theoretical knowledge in the eyes of policy makers and the
public at large.