Aliance Behavior of States in Balance of Power Theory

Abstract

This paper analyses the role of weak states in the theory of balance of
power. Using advanced quantitative methods, this study builds on Stephan
Walt’s concept of balance of threat, which is derived from an original theory
of Kenneth Waltz, and examines the relation between two types of states’
behaviour (balancing and bandwagoning) and the factors influencing the
tendency of a state to choose one or the other. The influence of these
factors is analysed in the period from the end of the Napoleonic Wars until
the beginning of WWII in the European and South American regions. Based
on a statistical analysis, our study concludes that when the power of a state
decreases, its tendency towards balancing the main threat decreases as
well. The behaviour of states is also influenced by the geographic proximity
of the main threat and the number of available allies as well as by the
character of the political regime of the given state, although these factors
often have different influences within the examined regions.